"-Netherlands and Denmark begin campaigns to leave the EU"
I don't understand why you predicted this. After the Brexit fiasco and the surge of pro-Western sentiments throughout the West following the Ukraine war, I don't think that any additional country would actually want to leave the EU. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Britain will eventually rejoin the EU at some future point in time, maybe in 1-3 decades' time?
I just read through these predictions for the first time - I hadn't been following you at the beginning of the year - and the result looks a bit like a crapshoot. You obviously got some big things right, with for instance Trump winning the US election, the Israel wars getting worse, and more violence in the Sahel, and yet the biggest, most doomful predictions didn't pan out.
Basically, I lay out my argument - geographical, technological, and demographic - for why the various conflict flash-points around the world are unlikely to ignite into another world war anytime soon. So far, my "conflicts will stay local" thesis has held out pretty well over the years I've been blogging (i.e. since 2019) and I intend to keep relying on it when I do this year's predictions.
"-Netherlands and Denmark begin campaigns to leave the EU"
I don't understand why you predicted this. After the Brexit fiasco and the surge of pro-Western sentiments throughout the West following the Ukraine war, I don't think that any additional country would actually want to leave the EU. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Britain will eventually rejoin the EU at some future point in time, maybe in 1-3 decades' time?
I just read through these predictions for the first time - I hadn't been following you at the beginning of the year - and the result looks a bit like a crapshoot. You obviously got some big things right, with for instance Trump winning the US election, the Israel wars getting worse, and more violence in the Sahel, and yet the biggest, most doomful predictions didn't pan out.
I'll have my own annual predictions post up on New Year's Day. In the meantime, I think you should check out this article I wrote back in April called "Why I'm Still Not Worried About World War Three." https://twilightpatriot.substack.com/p/why-im-still-not-worried-about-world
Basically, I lay out my argument - geographical, technological, and demographic - for why the various conflict flash-points around the world are unlikely to ignite into another world war anytime soon. So far, my "conflicts will stay local" thesis has held out pretty well over the years I've been blogging (i.e. since 2019) and I intend to keep relying on it when I do this year's predictions.