Revisiting My Predictions For 2024

What I got right

-Ukraine War ends in a stalemate, Russia holds onto Crimea and large chunks of Eastern Ukraine.

-there is another massive exodus out of Ukraine after the war ends

-Ukraine agrees to not join NATO but eventually joins the EU

False

-civil unrest/anti-Putin protests break out in Russia, in response to stalemate and military causalities

False

-Putin wins re-election and cracks down hard on dissent

True

-Israel/Gaza war continues throughout 24’, civilian casualties reach 100k by Summer

The Israeli siege of Gaza has continued. The official count for Gazan casualties is closer to 50k though some estimates put it as high as 300k.

-Israel negotiates an arrangement to relocate Gazan refugees to the West

Israel attempted to relocate Gazans to the West but failed.

-Israel war escalates with Hezbollah while US fights proxy wars against Iran in Yemen, Syria and Iraq, though direct conflict with Iran is avoided

That is mostly true, though Iran did strike Israel which turned out to be a nothing burger.

-US relies upon drone strikes due to declining military recruitment

True

-chaos in Red Sea causes oil and commodity prices to soar, though US is much less impacted than Europe

True, though nowhere as catastrophic than I initially anticipated.

-Israel’s economy crashes, mass exodus from Israel to the West, especially among high skilled workers

That’s mostly true, though not as severe as I anticipated.

-War between Armenia and Azerbaijan reignites, and Turkey and Iran get involved

False, but I still predict the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict will reignite due to Turkey and Azerbaijan taking advantage that Armenia’s key allies, Russia and Iran, are greatly weakened.

-Egypt goes to war against Ethiopia over water rights

False, but I still predict this scenario at some point over the next decade.

-Civil war and terrorism accelerate in West Africa’s Sahel

True

-famine, debt defaults, and civil unrest throughout much of the Third World

True, though not as bad as I anticipated.

-US migrant crisis accelerates, especially among migrants from the Eastern Hemisphere (Africa, Middle East, and Asia)

False, Biden was able to slow down the migrant crisis before the election.

-Biden admin further encourages open borders to f with Trump

While Biden is speeding up asylum processing before Trump’s inauguration, the number of migrants at the border is much lower than it was a year or two ago.

-civil war ignites in Pakistan

The Taliban/Pashtun Separatists are currently in conflict with Pakistan’s military but it is too soon to tell if this ignites into a conflict.

-Major financial crash in China

While China’s economy is in really bad shape, China has been able to hold off a financial crash by money printing.

-Chinese invasion of Taiwan is put on hold

True

-civil unrest reignites in Brazil

False

-racialized riots break out in South Africa

False

-more nationalists/populists get elected to office in Europe

Yes, the AFD had a historic electoral victory in Germany.

-a series of 2015-like terror attacks in Europe

True, there was recently a major terror attack by a Saudi national in Germany.

-Argentina’s Javier Milei succeeds in bringing down inflation while causing a deflationary crash

While I was initially skeptical of Milei’s economic proposals, he has brought down inflation without causing a major crash, albeit with economic pain.

-Netherlands and Denmark begin campaigns to leave the EU

No, Geert Wilders dropped his pledge for the Netherlands to hold a referendum to leave the EU.

-Trump wins the GOP nomination and is re-elected by a narrow margin

True, and I got this right last December while I was predicting that Kamala would win in September.

-Independent candidates, including RFK Jr, outperform

Sort of. RFK Jr. dropped out to endorse Trump but Jill Stein pulled well enough with Arab voters in Michigan to harm Kamala Harris.

-Supreme Court rules in Trump’s favor

Yes, the Supreme Court ruled in July in favor of granting Trump immunity from criminal liability for January 6th.

-Trump selects Vivek Ramaswamy for VP

False

-resurgence in mass civil unrest involving Antifa versus MAGA

False

-another major wave of social media and financial de-platforming around the election

False

-the rise in a new normie centrism that rejects both MAGA and wokeness, that is billionaire Astroturfed

True, you see this with the H1B immigration debate with pro-Musk neoliberals comparing anti-immigrant nationalists to CRT/Wokeness.

-anti-Israel activism increases in scope, and more mainstream Democrats are pressured by progressives to call for a ceasefire

Initially yes, but the anti-Israel protests have fizzled out somewhat.

-pro-Israel Lobby shifts toward the GOP

True

-Universities put forth modified versions of CRT that is inclusive of Jews

True

-increasing divide between the progressive Left and neoliberal center-left, due to Gaza and economic hardship/income inequality

True, and this was a factor as to why Kamala lost.

-White identity politics is normalized amongst the Right

Somewhat

-The Right starts to come to grips with post-Americanism

Not really. Only on the dissident right. Trump’s winning is reviving copes about Americanism and that America can be taken back.

-Trump also makes immense inroads among working class non-White men

True

-There is increasing interest in alternative institutions, alternative economies, neo-tribalism, and patronage networks

Sort of, but we are still in the very early stages of this.

-US avoids a technical recession due to spending and migration propping up the GDP

True

-2024 starts off hyper-bullish for stock markets and the economy

True

-more regional banks fail in Spring, followed by more bailouts and bank consolidations

No major bank failures, though there has been a continued consolidation of the banking system.

-inflation resurges in Summer of 24’ while markets remain bullish

Inflation went down last Summer though there was an uptick in inflation in November.

-crash in commercial real estate begins in Fall

False, but I still think there is a high risk of a crash in commercial real estate.

-Trump’s re-election is surprisingly bullish for markets

True

-major breakthroughs in AI help temporarily prop up the markets throughout 24’

True, but a lot of it was from hype rather than from any breakthrough in AI.

-automation replaces new jobs, while mass layoffs are put on hold

True

-first major political or civil crisis that is caused by AI

False, but I still predict this at some point over the next several years.

-the rise in realistic AI pornography and AI GF simulators negatively impacts Onlyfans performers’ revenue.

No, AI GFs and pornography are still in the early stages but they will have a huge impact over the next several years.

-Europe’s economy crashes hard in 24’

Europe’s economy is in terrible shape but there has not been an official big crash.

-Canada enters a recession

Canada really is in a recession but its Central Bank won’t officially declare it.

-The big crash for the US economy is delayed

True

-certain Anglosphere nations have test pilot programs for Central Bank Digital currencies, while put on hold in the US

True, the UK is pursuing a Central Bank Digital Currency while it has been put on hold in the US.

-social isolation is increasingly talked about as a major national health crisis by mainstream media and politicians

True

-backlash against atomization and technocratic control leads to a new embrace of exuberance, hedonism, and fun amongst younger Zoomers

Sort of, but it is more of a cope or rather there is more exuberance among higher status and more successful people.