Robert Stark's Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. -Ukraine War ends in a stalemate, Russia holds onto Crimea and large chunks of Eastern Ukraine, -there is another massive exodus out of Ukraine after the war ends
Ukraine is being defeated and its government is likely to collapse. Russia will insist on neutrality in any truce or settlement. No EU membership for Ukraine.
Russia is not going to agree to another truce so the Ukrainians can re-arm. They feel tricked / lied to by the Minsk's accords. And Merkel and the former French President collaborate this.
1. Russia will continue to grind down Ukraine till Ukraine is a tiny landlocked country. The historical Russian areas, the Bolsheviks granted to Ukraine, will be part of Russia again. It’s only a stalemate in Western propaganda.
2. White whatever, except for the fbi controlled patriot front, is not happening.
3. The U.S. has moved from an ethnic political mix, to a working class vs elites. Maga vs Elites. And the Elites hate Maga. The elites are a product of a brainwashed k-12 plus higher education turning out good dei, globalist, believe the right science, climate change useful virtue signaling idiots.
4. South Africa has a higher chance of tribal riots. It’s a highly dysfunctional state. Think the route of Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the remaining whites have nowhere to go. Those that can have left. Reverse racism rules, resulting in promotion based on skin color.
5. See Shadowstats for the real inflation rate.
6. Dollar loses more of its reserve currency mojo. Non Western Countries run as fast as possible from using the U.S. dollar due to fear of financial sanctions and seizures of assets (as happened to Russia).
7. Can Trump win? Seeing what happened to Kari Lake I’m not sure. Of course I did not think he would win in 2016. I doubt the U.S. will clean up its voting system, third world countries have more secure systems that the U.S.
8. Western Global censorship efforts, such as the Eu and Ireland, will grow.
9. More attempted Western backed color revolutions attempts will happen, see Serbia and Belarus, but countries see through them.
10. The U.S. will lose a lot if global clout/ fear after the Houthani show the U.S. aircraft carriers are obsolete. The math does not work, where a $500,000 missile with limited production takes out a $30,000 drone.
11. Non woke European parties win more elections.
12. Covid vaccine legal shields are finally pierced.
13. Ca enters a painful recession.
14. Blacks get more and more anti Biden due to Biden’s open borders. They just stay home on Election Day, helping the GOP win the Senate, despite the best efforts of the eGOP.
15. The impact of Twitter on the U.S. electorate gestalt grows, while the msm continues to lose credibility. As do so many other institutions.
16. A major terrorist attack happens in the U.S.
17. Trans child child care motivates voters against Democrats.
18. Abortion is used to motivate Democratic Voters.
19. Continued MSM and Democratic efforts to portray Trump as the next Hitler, Racist, incompetent, dictator are ignored by his voters due to loss of credibility and crying wolf till often.
20. SCOTUS try’s to act non partisan and Trumps wins half of decisions due to Robert's and Kavanaugh. Julie Kelly has a good forecast, sigh. J6 jihad is not stopped duecto same reasoning. Lawfare against Trump continues, making into more of a martyr.
21. Democrats civil war over Dei continues, since neither side will moderate. Claudine Gay continues as Harvard President.
22. Israel - no idea. Both sides have lied and exaggerated. Israeli politics is strange. My guess is Israel is not doing as well as it claims to be, and casualties per Hamas are less. Herzbolla did well in 2006 against Israel, and is now stronger. Israel’s military capabilities have not grown as fast as its enemies.
23. Attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East will continue. U.S. forces will stay in Syria due to hubris.
24. Soros DA’s will continue destroying large urban areas through decriminalization.
25. FBI will do a Whitmer Kidnapping 2.0 right before the election.
26. Will Biden be impeached by the house? I doubt it. Too many Rino’s. But may be I’m wrong. A possible black swan event as more and more evidence of Biden corruption is released.
27. Offshoring from China gains speed, Mexico is the beneficiary.
28. Kari Lakes court case goes no where, unfortunate. Some judicial excuse is found to dodge the issue.
29. The Dominion Ga case is prolonged past the election and the weaknesses of system is hidden by the courts.
30. Julian Assange is brought to trial in the U.S.
31. Labor wins big in Uk, and so called Conservative Party is throughly trounced. Nigel Farage party does surprisingly well.
Practically all of the predictions are plausible. I disagree on the Ukraine and Russia. The former will be offered a spot within the EU (for the convenience of bond-holders and foreign investors). Russia will remain internally stable and there will be little dissent and no great crackdown or wave of repression. The war will not end in a stalemate but in collapse and chaos across much of Ukraine. Ukraine will offer citizenship to 3rd world migrants/refugees and something worse than the migration crisis of 2015 will open up. Russia will retake the entire Black Sea coast as well as a bit more of the eastern Ukraine. They will not press on to the West.
I think that the Middle East is very tricky. There is potential for unrest within Iran itself...people there have urgent needs (employment, environment, corruption) that they wish to prioritise.
As for the election in the US, Trump will win but the country will be ungovernable. Significant unrest will break out in key cities.
I agree about Trump’s likely re-election but Dems will hold the Senate and possibly make gains in the house unless Republicans become much more Populist and less neoliberal on economics.
Issue is if eGOP decides they want to win, instead of fighting Maga candidates giving elections to the Democrats. It’s amazing how the forecast red wave in the mid terms did not happen.
Ukraine is being defeated and its government is likely to collapse. Russia will insist on neutrality in any truce or settlement. No EU membership for Ukraine.
Russia is not going to agree to another truce so the Ukrainians can re-arm. They feel tricked / lied to by the Minsk's accords. And Merkel and the former French President collaborate this.
Fantastic list! Science fiction is here!
Thank you for your work Stark!
1. Russia will continue to grind down Ukraine till Ukraine is a tiny landlocked country. The historical Russian areas, the Bolsheviks granted to Ukraine, will be part of Russia again. It’s only a stalemate in Western propaganda.
2. White whatever, except for the fbi controlled patriot front, is not happening.
3. The U.S. has moved from an ethnic political mix, to a working class vs elites. Maga vs Elites. And the Elites hate Maga. The elites are a product of a brainwashed k-12 plus higher education turning out good dei, globalist, believe the right science, climate change useful virtue signaling idiots.
4. South Africa has a higher chance of tribal riots. It’s a highly dysfunctional state. Think the route of Zimbabwe. Unfortunately the remaining whites have nowhere to go. Those that can have left. Reverse racism rules, resulting in promotion based on skin color.
5. See Shadowstats for the real inflation rate.
6. Dollar loses more of its reserve currency mojo. Non Western Countries run as fast as possible from using the U.S. dollar due to fear of financial sanctions and seizures of assets (as happened to Russia).
7. Can Trump win? Seeing what happened to Kari Lake I’m not sure. Of course I did not think he would win in 2016. I doubt the U.S. will clean up its voting system, third world countries have more secure systems that the U.S.
8. Western Global censorship efforts, such as the Eu and Ireland, will grow.
9. More attempted Western backed color revolutions attempts will happen, see Serbia and Belarus, but countries see through them.
10. The U.S. will lose a lot if global clout/ fear after the Houthani show the U.S. aircraft carriers are obsolete. The math does not work, where a $500,000 missile with limited production takes out a $30,000 drone.
11. Non woke European parties win more elections.
12. Covid vaccine legal shields are finally pierced.
13. Ca enters a painful recession.
14. Blacks get more and more anti Biden due to Biden’s open borders. They just stay home on Election Day, helping the GOP win the Senate, despite the best efforts of the eGOP.
15. The impact of Twitter on the U.S. electorate gestalt grows, while the msm continues to lose credibility. As do so many other institutions.
16. A major terrorist attack happens in the U.S.
17. Trans child child care motivates voters against Democrats.
18. Abortion is used to motivate Democratic Voters.
19. Continued MSM and Democratic efforts to portray Trump as the next Hitler, Racist, incompetent, dictator are ignored by his voters due to loss of credibility and crying wolf till often.
20. SCOTUS try’s to act non partisan and Trumps wins half of decisions due to Robert's and Kavanaugh. Julie Kelly has a good forecast, sigh. J6 jihad is not stopped duecto same reasoning. Lawfare against Trump continues, making into more of a martyr.
21. Democrats civil war over Dei continues, since neither side will moderate. Claudine Gay continues as Harvard President.
22. Israel - no idea. Both sides have lied and exaggerated. Israeli politics is strange. My guess is Israel is not doing as well as it claims to be, and casualties per Hamas are less. Herzbolla did well in 2006 against Israel, and is now stronger. Israel’s military capabilities have not grown as fast as its enemies.
23. Attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East will continue. U.S. forces will stay in Syria due to hubris.
24. Soros DA’s will continue destroying large urban areas through decriminalization.
25. FBI will do a Whitmer Kidnapping 2.0 right before the election.
26. Will Biden be impeached by the house? I doubt it. Too many Rino’s. But may be I’m wrong. A possible black swan event as more and more evidence of Biden corruption is released.
27. Offshoring from China gains speed, Mexico is the beneficiary.
28. Kari Lakes court case goes no where, unfortunate. Some judicial excuse is found to dodge the issue.
29. The Dominion Ga case is prolonged past the election and the weaknesses of system is hidden by the courts.
30. Julian Assange is brought to trial in the U.S.
31. Labor wins big in Uk, and so called Conservative Party is throughly trounced. Nigel Farage party does surprisingly well.
All this in one year
Practically all of the predictions are plausible. I disagree on the Ukraine and Russia. The former will be offered a spot within the EU (for the convenience of bond-holders and foreign investors). Russia will remain internally stable and there will be little dissent and no great crackdown or wave of repression. The war will not end in a stalemate but in collapse and chaos across much of Ukraine. Ukraine will offer citizenship to 3rd world migrants/refugees and something worse than the migration crisis of 2015 will open up. Russia will retake the entire Black Sea coast as well as a bit more of the eastern Ukraine. They will not press on to the West.
I think that the Middle East is very tricky. There is potential for unrest within Iran itself...people there have urgent needs (employment, environment, corruption) that they wish to prioritise.
As for the election in the US, Trump will win but the country will be ungovernable. Significant unrest will break out in key cities.
I agree about Trump’s likely re-election but Dems will hold the Senate and possibly make gains in the house unless Republicans become much more Populist and less neoliberal on economics.
Issue is if eGOP decides they want to win, instead of fighting Maga candidates giving elections to the Democrats. It’s amazing how the forecast red wave in the mid terms did not happen.
Maga types are very populist.
Red wave failed bc upper class whites are secular and hate Christian influence on government, especially abortion