US births have been consistently declining since 2014, but actually increased from 3,613,647 in 2020 to 3,659,289 in 2021. White births increased by 2.2% (from 1,843,432 to 1,884,554), Hispanics birth by 2% (from 866,713 to 884,726), Black births declined -2.4% (from 529,811 to 517,027), Asian births declined by 2.5% (from 219,068 to 213,556), and Native American births declined by -3.3%.
But the analysis of European fertility seems flawed.
Births to foreigners vs native born births is very limited as a metric. It takes no account of the fact that many births in the latter category are not to Europeans.
Portraying a rebound in 'native' births that, in the case of Belgium for example, could easily be 30-40% North African is misleading.
What explains the huge discrepancy between American Indian fertility (the lowest of any group) and Canadian Indigenous fertility (the highest of any group)?
"We should expect fertility to rebound in developed countries which have completed their demographic transition, like in North America and Europe.” Maybe, maybe not. Ancient nations that underwent natural depopulation processes, like Greece and the Latium (Rome), did not arrive at former population densities even today. Cities are notorious population sinks, and urbanization is accelerating everywhere. The future may be more bizarre than you expect.
I’ve heard this argument a lot since the mid 2000s with all the headlines about Red States having more babies and abortion policies removing the anti natalists from the gene pool and so on. Hasn’t seemed to matter. Does it matter when the economic trends push younger families to delay children more and more? The “trad” states that defied the trends have mostly maxxed out, and then their kids move out of state… to the cities. It seems that’s the cohort that stands to benefit most from this fertility hypothesis: affluent liberal PMC.
On the other hand, in Europe the Nordics had a little baby boom from 2020-2021 while the other nations declined. Denmark is still doing well while Sweden has had some bizarre panic headlines recently.
Poland is another country where fertility of natives is higher than of immigrants. Poland has notoriously bad population data because of a few outdated definitions but an approximate would put native fertility at around 1.55-1.6 (a little worse than Czechia) while immigrant fertility is at around 1.1.
Really interesting article.
But the analysis of European fertility seems flawed.
Births to foreigners vs native born births is very limited as a metric. It takes no account of the fact that many births in the latter category are not to Europeans.
Portraying a rebound in 'native' births that, in the case of Belgium for example, could easily be 30-40% North African is misleading.
What explains the huge discrepancy between American Indian fertility (the lowest of any group) and Canadian Indigenous fertility (the highest of any group)?
"We should expect fertility to rebound in developed countries which have completed their demographic transition, like in North America and Europe.” Maybe, maybe not. Ancient nations that underwent natural depopulation processes, like Greece and the Latium (Rome), did not arrive at former population densities even today. Cities are notorious population sinks, and urbanization is accelerating everywhere. The future may be more bizarre than you expect.
I’ve heard this argument a lot since the mid 2000s with all the headlines about Red States having more babies and abortion policies removing the anti natalists from the gene pool and so on. Hasn’t seemed to matter. Does it matter when the economic trends push younger families to delay children more and more? The “trad” states that defied the trends have mostly maxxed out, and then their kids move out of state… to the cities. It seems that’s the cohort that stands to benefit most from this fertility hypothesis: affluent liberal PMC.
On the other hand, in Europe the Nordics had a little baby boom from 2020-2021 while the other nations declined. Denmark is still doing well while Sweden has had some bizarre panic headlines recently.
Does a white birth according to the CDC mean a baby born to a white mother? In that case how many babies born in 2021 were fully white?
Poland is another country where fertility of natives is higher than of immigrants. Poland has notoriously bad population data because of a few outdated definitions but an approximate would put native fertility at around 1.55-1.6 (a little worse than Czechia) while immigrant fertility is at around 1.1.