Prediction for the best case scenario for Trump on Immigration

Will Trump Brain Drain the First World and change the composition of immigrants?

My predictions for Trump on immigration:

Illegal Immigration

-Trump’s ICE/DHS will deport criminal illegal aliens and enact some targeted yet performative workplace raids.

-However, the majority of Biden's migrants will be allowed to stay, especially families.

-There will be a slowdown in the migrant wave from South of the border.

-However, the migrant crisis will shift toward Canada, and shift in profile away from Latin America, with more Chinese and Indian migrants.

-Trump does not make any reforms to birthright citizenship but does restrict illegal immigrants from receiving welfare and food stamps.

Legal Immigration

-Trump will maintain the status quo on the overall number of legal immigrants.

-Trump will not make any significant reforms to family reunification.

-Trump will reinstate the “Muslim Ban” and scrap refugee intake from Muslim and African nations.

-Trump will maintain the status quo and make no meaningful reforms to H1b visas due to his new Silicon Valley backers and his alliance with Modi’s India.

-However, due to a tech crash and the rise of AI, there is a demand for a tech workforce that is smaller in size but more cognitively elite.  

-Trump cracks down on Chinese migrants connected to the CCP but welcomes Christians, ethnic minorities, and dissidents from China.

-Overall, Indian and Chinese immigration will stay about the same and perhaps increase slightly.  

White Immigrants

-Trump will brain drain the First World, including the UK, Europe, Canada, Japan, and Taiwan.

-This will be embraced by the center-right of Silicon Valley, such as Elon Musk, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, and Peter Thiel.

-Trump will welcome the 2^nd wave of Ukrainian refugees after throwing Ukraine under the bus to Russia.

-Trump also tries to brain drain Russia.

-There will also be an increase in immigration from Israel, and perhaps the Caucasus countries, like Georgia and Armenia.

-Trump will possibly grant asylum to White South Africans and Bolsonaro supporting Brazilians.

-While Trump will be slightly more pro-immigration than his previous term, there might be the biggest spike in White immigration since the end of The Cold War.

-This brain drain is exploiting that America is using its World Reserve Currency status to f- over the rest of the developed world, but is a one-time opportunity.

-This isn’t some cope that Trump is somehow pro-White and if not for the economic crisis in Europe, Canada, and other First World Nations, Trump would more likely rely upon East Asian and Indian immigrants for high-skilled positions.

-Peter Zeihan, who is basically a neoliberal and liberal on immigration, predicts a big increase in European immigration over the next decade.

-However, Trump has remarked that he wants more immigrants from Europe and not from “shithole” countries.

-Trump will get called racist for favoring White immigrants but it won’t matter as long as corporations can get high-skilled talent.

Summary

-While this scenario is not ideal from the standpoint of immigration hardliners, this would actually be the most optimistic scenario for Trump on immigration.

-Trump could very well be a huge disappointment on immigration for restrictionists.

-Regardless, mass deportations or a total immigration moratorium will never happen and are a massive cope for the Right, unless perhaps automation wipes out most jobs.

-During Trump’s first term, he reduced illegal and legal immigration modestly but did not change the demographic composition of immigrants.

-For Trump’s 2nd term, I predict that he will simultaneously be somewhat more pro-immigration but also change the composition of immigrants.

-I could see the GOP embracing the Singapore model for immigration, that is higher skilled, more diverse and balanced in composition, yet still relatively high in numbers.

-If a Democrat is elected to the White House, expect a big acceleration in immigration of South Americans, Africans, Muslims, South Asians, and Chinese.