Prediction for the best case scenario for Trump on Immigration
Will Trump Brain Drain the First World and change the composition of immigrants?
My predictions for Trump on immigration:
Illegal Immigration
-Trump’s ICE/DHS will deport criminal illegal aliens and enact some targeted yet performative workplace raids.
-However, the majority of Biden's migrants will be allowed to stay, especially families.
-There will be a slowdown in the migrant wave from South of the border.
-However, the migrant crisis will shift toward Canada, and shift in profile away from Latin America, with more Chinese and Indian migrants.
-Trump does not make any reforms to birthright citizenship but does restrict illegal immigrants from receiving welfare and food stamps.
Legal Immigration
-Trump will maintain the status quo on the overall number of legal immigrants.
-Trump will not make any significant reforms to family reunification.
-Trump will reinstate the “Muslim Ban” and scrap refugee intake from Muslim and African nations.
-Trump will maintain the status quo and make no meaningful reforms to H1b visas due to his new Silicon Valley backers and his alliance with Modi’s India.
-However, due to a tech crash and the rise of AI, there is a demand for a tech workforce that is smaller in size but more cognitively elite.
-Trump cracks down on Chinese migrants connected to the CCP but welcomes Christians, ethnic minorities, and dissidents from China.
-Overall, Indian and Chinese immigration will stay about the same and perhaps increase slightly.
White Immigrants
-Trump will brain drain the First World, including the UK, Europe, Canada, Japan, and Taiwan.
-This will be embraced by the center-right of Silicon Valley, such as Elon Musk, David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, and Peter Thiel.
-Trump will welcome the 2nd wave of Ukrainian refugees after throwing Ukraine under the bus to Russia.
-Trump also tries to brain drain Russia.
-There will also be an increase in immigration from Israel, and perhaps the Caucasus countries, like Georgia and Armenia.
-Trump will possibly grant asylum to White South Africans and Bolsonaro supporting Brazilians.
-While Trump will be slightly more pro-immigration than his previous term, there might be the biggest spike in White immigration since the end of The Cold War.
-This brain drain is exploiting that America is using its World Reserve Currency status to f- over the rest of the developed world, but is a one-time opportunity.
-This isn’t some cope that Trump is somehow pro-White and if not for the economic crisis in Europe, Canada, and other First World Nations, Trump would more likely rely upon East Asian and Indian immigrants for high-skilled positions.
-Peter Zeihan, who is basically a neoliberal and liberal on immigration, predicts a big increase in European immigration over the next decade.
-However, Trump has remarked that he wants more immigrants from Europe and not from “shithole” countries.
-Trump will get called racist for favoring White immigrants but it won’t matter as long as corporations can get high-skilled talent.
Summary
-While this scenario is not ideal from the standpoint of immigration hardliners, this would actually be the most optimistic scenario for Trump on immigration.
-Trump could very well be a huge disappointment on immigration for restrictionists.
-Regardless, mass deportations or a total immigration moratorium will never happen and are a massive cope for the Right, unless perhaps automation wipes out most jobs.
-During Trump’s first term, he reduced illegal and legal immigration modestly but did not change the demographic composition of immigrants.
-For Trump’s 2nd term, I predict that he will simultaneously be somewhat more pro-immigration but also change the composition of immigrants.
-I could see the GOP embracing the Singapore model for immigration, that is higher skilled, more diverse and balanced in composition, yet still relatively high in numbers.
-If a Democrat is elected to the White House, expect a big acceleration in immigration of South Americans, Africans, Muslims, South Asians, and Chinese.
Sounds bad either way for the native-born white working class and poor.
If you believe that Providence saved Trump's life, you'd better believe that Providence wants Trump to do something on immigration, because the graphic that saved his life pertained to curbing illegal immigration!