California as a Social Darwinist Experiment in Breeder Selection Theory

How California's Anti-Natalist Selection Pressures might lead to a more Eugenic Future

source: @nonebusinesshey on X

Breeder Selection Theory hypothesizes that anti-natalist selection pressures mean that the genes of those who reproduce become more pronounced in the future. Anti-natalism shreds the genes of those who are not genetically predetermined to reproduce, leaving those who are wired to breed dominating future generations. The fertility crash is analogous to the Black Death, in which entire bloodlines die out while survivors emerge advantageous.

Since White people underwent anti-natalist selection pressures earlier than non-Whites, they might be at a demographic advantage in the long run. Evidence for Breeder Selection Theory’s legitimacy is that US White fertility increased from 1.55 to 1.57 from 2020 to 2021, after declining in previous decades. However, US White fertility declined to 1.53 in 2023 and remained stable this year.

source: @Empty_America on X

Because California has such extreme anti-natalist selection pressures, California is a test run for this hypothesis. However, White fertility is declining in California and is lower than non-White fertility at an abysmal 1.27, down from 1.29 in 2023, 1.34 in 2022, and 1.36 in 2019.

California’s upper class White fertility is higher than middle class White fertility but is likely still below replacement. My estimate is that California’s middle class White fertility is approaching South Korean levels, perhaps as low as 1.0, upper middle class White fertility is 1.4, and maybe 1.7 for wealthy Whites. While California’s White fertility has not seen any rebound as America’s did during the pandemic, it would not surprise me if there was a modest boost for wealthy White fertility. Fertility rises with income more so among Whites than it does among non-Whites. Fertility is especially crashing among college educated women of color.

I noticed a modest White upper class baby boom around the time of the pandemic in California. The primary explanation is remote work allowed upper class women to stay home with children and thus more likely to have another kid. Other explanations are that many Millennials are rushing to have kids and that many house rich cash poor boomers are downsizing or leaving California for retirement, so upper class millennials are buying their homes to start families.

The traditional White middle class demographic is generally leaving the State in droves, moving to far out exurbs, or living an urban apartment dwelling lifestyle and not starting families. What is especially tragic is that artists and creative or bohemian types, who made California great, are a demographic that is especially dying out.

My prediction is that while Texas and a lot of other red and purple states will rapidly become more non-White, California may become Whiter or at the very least stabilize demographically at some point. The current decline in White fertility is explained by the destruction of the White middle class, but once mostly upper class Whites remain and the low fertility DINK faction of the upper class dies off, is when California could see a rebound in the White Fertility rate, albeit with a smaller base White population.

Once the mass demographic of elderly Whites, from older Boomers and the remaining Silent Generation are gone, there is going to be a cataclysmic demographic shift. On one hand, the overall White population will be greatly diminished and certain areas will transform overnight from older White people to non-White. However, this will open up prime real estate to affluent White GenZ who will start having families around 2030. So there will be White baby booms but that will be very geographically and class specific.

An example of this dichotomy is illustrated by Gavin Newsom, who has made life worse for middle class White families and caused an exodus of the remaining middle class White families out of California. Newsom having a large White family is especially ironic, and perhaps Newsom’s descendants will end up repopulating California.

source: @evo_homo on X

Policies like tax breaks or subsidies for private schools and deductions in property taxes for having more children, like Texas proposed, would raise fertility among the wealthy. This would never fly in California but I predict more policies like this in Red States. The situation in California is that extreme anti-natalist policies entail that natalism becomes a luxury and thus a huge status symbol, in a way it wasn’t for the Boomers. Children becoming more of a status symbol for the wealthy in the future means higher fertility among the wealthy.

source: @liberalmonarch on X

source: @powerfultakes on X

California’s elite are at the forefront of IVF technology and California has far more IVF clinics than any other State. An IVF doctor in California reported that many of his affluent clients seek out traits in embryo selection for blue eyes, and they hope in the future, for height. If artificial wombs take off in the future, expect them to significantly raise the fertility of the wealthy. California being liberal and secular ironically means there is less legislative pushback to what is essentially eugenics.

source: @AdamasNemesis on X

California’s Wealthy White areas are bifurcating between those aging and those more family oriented. For instance, Marin County in the Bay Area, and Santa Barbara, Santa Monica, Hollywood Hills, and Coronado in SoCal are known for their aging populations. In contrast, South Orange County, Pacific Palisades, Conejo Valley in SoCal, and Lamorinda (Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga) and Danville in the Bay Area are more family oriented. Often moderately wealthy areas like Santa Monica are full of Dinks and elderly empty nesters while nearby ultra wealthy Pacific Palisades is full of White families. Despite the Santa Barbara area having an aging population, ultra-wealthy Montecito is going to have more large families. These places maintain that idealized 1950s to 80s California lifestyle as bubbles for the wealthy.

source: @Empty_America on X

The descendants of the Whites who stay in California and reproduce are more resilient by selection. Also, California becoming more diverse means that the remaining Whites who don’t mix in the future might emerge as a more tribal ethnogeneses. White Nationalist paranoia about Whites becoming extinct is wrong, but rather we are moving toward a tribal and caste-based society. Ironically, class stratification leading to ethnogenesis or caste goes against the very principle of neoliberalism, which is opening up markets as a way to dismantle old hereditary caste structures.

I have noticed a niche of wealthy White Californians who have three kids, and they tend to be blonde and athletic. Rich liberals who look like conservatives are the ones who are reproducing in California while those who look like the stereotypical liberal “bugmen” don’t. In California, being blonde codes as old money and is becoming a distinct caste. This is due to the selective mating of wealthy men marrying attractive blonde women but also the remnants of California’s old middle class, including many German Americans from the Midwest, who became wealthy by buying into the most desirable coastal real estate at the right time.

The White upper class with kids is more centrist and for this reason, California’s White elite could become more centrist in the future. For instance, a mock election at affluent Palisades High School in LA had Trump only a few points behind Kamala Harris.

To the degree California has White breeder cults, it is either among subsets of the wealthy or certain religious sects. While California’s White population being more secular explains lower fertility, there are some high fertility religious groups including Orthodox Jews in LA, Ukrainian Protestants in the Sacramento metro, and perhaps Mormons. There is also a niche of high fertility upper middle class Evangelical Christians in places like Yorba Linda in Orange County.

source: @Rusty2954 on X

High fertility Mormons could eventually end up boosting the White demographics of Phoenix and Las Vegas. However, Mormons will probably have less of an impact on California’s demographics, due to many of them leaving California for Utah. Natalist advocates, Simone & Malcolm Collins, found that even though Mormon fertility is declining, Mormon fertility is becoming especially pronounced among the wealthiest. I expect Mormons to increase in elite positions in the future because they value success like Jews and Hindus, while also having higher fertility among the wealthiest.

It is plausible that descendants of these high fertility wealthy Mormons could end up populating California’s upper middle class. Orthodox Jewish fertility could end up boosting LA’s Mid City White population, as it has in Brooklyn, New York. However, I predict that nonreligious affluent Whites with higher fertility will end up having a greater impact than the religious.

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

There is a case that California’s exodus disproportionately impacting families is countering breeder selection theory. If California banned people from leaving then these demographic trends would become much more pronounced. The exodus is even impacting wealthy Whites, though much less so than for middle class and working class Whites. It is also plausible that California ends up taxing the wealthy so much they leave.

While some upper middle class White families have left the State, a lot more have relocated from urban to suburban areas. California’s White population is becoming more geographically concentrated, with White Flight out of urban areas that are in disarray. For instance, Whites relocating from LA to Thousand Oaks, Manhattan Beach, or Orange Country, and from San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Oakland to Marin County, Lamorinda, Danville, or the foothill suburbs of Sacramento.

The school enrollment data site, School Digger, shows that in 2023, there was a modest increase in White school enrollment at many elementary schools in affluent suburban areas, after declining throughout the 2010s. This could be a sign of breeder selection theory or could just be explained by White flight from urban areas. There were huge declines in White school enrollment in urban areas and middle class suburbs.

The last wave of White new money in California was with the GenX 90s tech boom. Certainly, the rise in tech money and perhaps AI in the future could make California’s elite much more Asian and Indian and less White. Many upper middle class White suburbs have become more Asian, like Arcadia and Irvine in SoCal and much of Silicon Valley, Pleasanton, and San Ramon in the Bay Area.

However, AI may end up selecting for more charismatic Chad types who are disproportionately White, while a lot of the more technical roles that are Asian are more likely to be automated. Also, DEI policies mean that Whites who succeed in Corporate life have to be exceptional, backfiring creating this caste of super Whites.

Despite, California’s Asian population growing a lot due to immigration. Asian fertility is even lower than that for Whites. Also, Asian tech immigrants skew heavily male which negatively impacts family formation. I expect California’s Asian fertility to continue to decline, while Whites might start to see a rebound. However, Asians will likely benefit from breeder selection theory in the distant future after the White rebound.

The Anglo/Jewish White elite is gatekeeping Asians much like Anglos did toward Jews in the past. There is speculation that DEI is being used as a cynical ploy by old money White elites to limit competition from Asian strivers. For instance, White liberals aligned with BIPOC in San Francisco pushed to scrap the meritocratic admissions at the high academically achieving and very Asian, Lowell High School. Most affluent Whites in San Francisco send their kids to private schools so they are not affected. Also, regulations that kill jobs, both high and low skilled jobs, are a way for old money to limit new money and non-White upward mobility.

The UC System recently instituted geographic based affirmative action of accepting the top students from each high school. This has screwed over wealthy White kids and caused many to go to college out of State but ironically has benefited some White kids from working class backgrounds and those who attend majority non-White high schools. California recently banned legacy college admissions which is also really bad for old money, who are largely White, while creating more opportunities for upwardly mobile middle class Asians and Latinos.

The hard woke Left in California wants to ban private schools or at the very least, integrate affluent White school districts with more diverse school districts. Prop 19 which taxes inheritance screws over heirs while benefiting new money. Expect the Left in California to target the inheritance of old money more as debt becomes worse. While the White middle class was unable to fight back against policies that harmed them, the question is how much pushback there will be from affluent Whites to dispossession?

While there is hype that California is heading in a YIMBY direction, California is still very NIMBY, and it could take two decades to make any real dent in affordability. NIMBYism is a trade-off in that it fucks over younger Whites, even from well off backgrounds, while also preserving old money by keeping out new money. While I am critical of NIMBY, it is a way for the elites to prevent total favelazation and protect scenic open space, which makes California desirable.

source: @powerfultakes on X

The fast food minimum wage hike could be a cynical ploy to increase automation and drive proles out of California. Urban decay is likely being exploited to push out the working class to pave the way for more gentrification. A severe recession could exacerbate gentrification and drive more working class people out of the State. There is also a case that Latino illegal immigration was used by elites to drive out Blacks from LA and the Bay Area.

Urban, native born, and middle class Latino fertility is crashing in California but is still relatively high among illegal immigrants and Latinos in agricultural regions. There is currently an exodus of lower middle class Mexican Americans that mirrors the mass exodus of the White working class in the 90s. California’s high prices also mean fewer new immigrants compared to other parts of the Nation, which explains why California is less impacted by Biden’s migrant crisis. California’s high home and rental prices are also crashing the fertility of the working class. Automation will likely further crush the fertility of the lower classes and reverse a long demographic trend, where the lower classes have higher fertility.

While I am pessimistic about any new party arising to challenge the Democrats, channeling Curtis Yarvin, the best case scenario for California politics might be the oligarchy controlled Democratic Party becoming more like a Singapore-style technocracy. We already see this with Newsome’s centrist technocratic pivot of vetoing lefty legislation.

While California is a one party state, I expect a major power struggle within the Democratic Party. The competing factions will be White old money, the Asian new money managerial class, Latino labor interests, and the DEI/BIPOC coalition. While Newsom represents a coalition of all these groups, there is growing friction. Most likely Old Money Whites will align with Blacks while Asians and Latinos align as upwardly mobile aspirants. However, a White/Latino alliance vs a Black/Asian alliance is also plausible. While there is a case for a White/Asian alliance, as the higher performing groups harmed by DEI, I just think that White vs Asian competition over elite positions will be so cataclysmic for that to happen in California.

My promotion of enclavism would put a break on the Social Darwinist process, both a cushion against White dispossession and also non-White anti-gentrification concerns. Enclavism means that people don’t have to compete as much. Enclavism is only a luxury for affluent Whites, and easy credit and institutional power are heavily invested in integration and demographic transformation. It might take a major economic downturn for California to become totally balkanized demographically.

source: @fitnessfeelingz on X

The question is who will be the winner of Social Darwinism in California? Will the White upper class descendants win out or will Whites be pushed out of California by immigrants, and only a tiny oligarchy remains? Regardless, these trends will play out in ways that no one expects and will be really interesting to watch in the future. Certainly, California is a massive social experiment. The situation in California might get really ugly and more hyper-competitive in the short term, but there is a chance it could be paradise again in the long term.