There are cycles of the new “thing,” and for a while it was Ukraine, and it has also been covid, George Floyd, MeToo, and now the protests in Iran. However, there is now some degree of fatigue and weariness about the Ukraine war from the public, rather than the original gung-ho support. While there is less hysteria about Russia than this spring, there are still signs that the war could further escalate. Regardless, the conflict will have long lasting geopolitical ramifications. I waited to write about the war, and while it might be less timely, now is a good time to take a more sober look at the conflict.
Good, clear, rational analysis of the overall situation without veering too far into partisanship on behalf of either side. From a pov in line with an 'America First' perspective, avoiding direct military conflict with Russia over something unrelated to our national interests such as which power controls Crimea or Donbas is absolutely imperative.
This is not our fight. See Barbarosaa's eponymous video " The Postfeminism Man" or " A soldiers sacrifice " for further reference.
Any unclear or partial outcome, with Crimea and Donbas remaining in Russia, will be the worst thing for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine will continue to radicalize, becoming Eastern European Sparta. This will make it an unattractive place to live for all castes who aren't kshatriyas. Russia will continue its drift towards neo-Stalinist autarky, losing the ablest and most successful people, who will emigrate to the West. Since Kherson and Zaporizhzhya are now "Russian" according to their constitution, them being under Ukrainian control will be a big stain on the reputation of any acting President. Thus, it will be the shakiest ceasefire since time immemorial.
I think the revolution in Russia is inevitable under all scenarios. If they lose, it will be a nationalist one. If they somehow win and conquer most of Ukraine, it will be a new 1917. All Ukrainian governments will absolutely push for Crimea and Donbas. Americans, including the Dems even, are arguing for not liberating Crimea but its clear they will be ignored.