Predictions and Expectations for Trump's 2nd Term on Culture, Ideology, Policy, & The Economy

While Trump’s comeback was historically unprecedented, the election was not a mandate for Trump but rather a referendum against the Democrats and the establishment. The Democrats lost because of their arrogance, anti-democratic strategies like suspending the primary, downplaying economic hardship, too much focus on identity politics, the Gaza issue, and lingering resentment over how COVID was handled. However, Democrats also turned off factions of the elite, including Zionists and business interests, as Biden did some things that were populist such as anti-trust.

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The Democrats and the Woke Left seemed like this omniscient authoritarian force but are now in shambles and greatly diminished. The Democratic coalition is infighting and partisan liberal networks like MSNBC are near bankruptcy. Former hostile elite figures, like Mark Zuckerberg and Jeff Bezos, are now kissing up to Trump. The Left is so demoralized that they are literally sterilizing themselves, which mirrors how demoralized the Right was when Biden defeated Trump. Civil unrest from the Left is not super likely for the time being because the Left is just not as energized as they were in 2016 and 2020. However, if Trump goes hard on mass deportations or there is a major economic crash, there could be civil unrest.

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There is now more freedom of speech online compared to the de-platforming waves after 2020 with COVID and the Summer of Floyd, and after Jan 6th, partly due to Elon Musk buying Twitter. However, many have amnesia that the mass de-platforming of the Alt Right after Charlottesville occurred under Trump while the Alt-Right emerged under Obama. Someone like Mike Cernovich was much more interesting as an Alt-Right Manosphere blogger during the Obama era. However, Cernovich reinvented himself as this pro-Trump conservative grifter, who threw the dissidents he previously associated with under the bus, and I fear some repeat of that trend.

Trump has been normalized and it is much more socially acceptable to be a normie and pro-Trump in a way that it was not in 2016. Those saying Trump is Hitler or a threat to Democracy are now easy to dismiss as shrill hyperbolic partisans. In contrast with the chaotic revolutionary vibes of Trump, I am also sensing a vibe shift that Trump supporters foresee a new Reagan era, with Trump as a symbol of bourgeoise aspirations. You have all these pro-Trump Zoomer guys who think they’re going to make a lot of money under Trump. The Wifejack meme is symbolic in that a lot of millennial and zoomer men are burnt out from being radical, and either appreciate having or seek out that conventional American suburban lifestyle. There is some repeat of the Yuppie vs Hippie dichotomy, with the more idealistic millennial Leftists and Alt-Righters as the equivalent of the Hippies who later got burnt out and disillusioned.

Wifejack Meme

Three demographics did well economically under Trump’s first term. The first group is business owners and established older wealthy people who own stock portfolios. The second group is people of color, especially women of color, as Trump’s corporate tax cuts and low interest rates ironically led to mass DEI-type hirings, as well as the expansion of service sector jobs, which helped lower class people of color. Blue collar White guys in the energy sector in Red States benefited from Trump loosening environmental regulations and drilling. The greatest losers of Trump’s economy were well educated but struggling middle class and largely White young people, or the precariat class. This demographic leans left and favored Bernie Sanders, but also reflects Alt Right figures who were bitter with Trump.

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A lot of the dissident right figures who had previously been disillusioned with Trump have come back around and are more optimistic. Past behavior is the best predicament of future behavior and “this time will be different” seems like a huge cope.” However, the argument for “this time is different,” is that Trump now has far more power over the GOP while before he was an outsider who had the old guard GOP establishment stifling him, and a lot more guard rails. Even though the new Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, is an establishment Republican, he knows that stifling Trump too much would be political suicide. However, Trump is getting very old and does not have the same stamina and dynamism as in 2016.

Trump’s re-election was a signal and reassurance to his base that the system works, while previously his supporters were starting to question the very legitimacy of the American system. As I predicted, there is this complacency that wokeness is receding, America has been taken back, and the good guys are back in charge, so conservatives can just grill again. Despite Trump functioning as a safety valve to prevent real revolutionary change, his election is a huge morale boost to non-liberal White Americans.

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The significant Latino pivot toward the GOP also makes Whites more complacent, as it is a signal that the American Melting Pot is working like it did in the past. Whites don’t have to panic as much about the dangers of South African style anti-White one party Democrat rule. DEI has not been totally defeated but rather will become less explicit and less over the top anti-White. Whites are now less likely to pursue things like ethnic patronage networks and enclavism than they would have if Harris had won. The GOP is also becoming the prole coded party, gaining prole coded non-Whites while loosing well educated culturally sophisticated Whites, who could have been won over by just toning down the anti-intellectualism.

MAGA is very much about the cult of personality of Trump but also malleable in that anyone can transpose their own ideology upon it, ranging from White Nationalists to QAnon conspiracy theorists to libertarians to Zionists to Boomer and Reagan Conservatives. While Trump and MAGA are often incoherent, I would describe its ideology as a hybrid of Reaganism, moderate Nixon/Rockefeller style Republicans, and Buchananite rightwing populism, as well as an assortment of other anti-establishment views. The other growing influence is the more technocratic Silicon Valley Right, such as Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, David Sacks, and Marc Andreessen.

Trump’s cabinet selections range from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, who is more establishment, to RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services and Tulsi Gabbard for National Intelligence, who are anti-establishment. Trump’s UN Ambassador selection, Elise Stefanik, is also a fairly mainstream Republican with a hawkish bent and Trump’s Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, had called for strikes on Iran. Trump’s National Security Advisor, Sebastian Gorka, has taken some more hawkish stances yet arch neocon, John Bolton, is unhappy about his selection, and liberals have smeared him for having ties to nationalists in Europe.

Trump’s EPA selection, Lee Zeldin, has a more moderate record on environmental issues, and Trump’s Labor Secretary selection, Lori Chavez-DeRemer, is a labor friendly moderate Republican, which are both hopeful signs that Trump might pivot to the center, away from Reaganism. It will be interesting to see if Trump keeps FTC Chair, Lina Khan, as Trump has strong reasons to oppose Google but is also warming up to parts of Silicon Valley. However, Trump’s key economic advisor is Kevin Hassett who is a Reaganite linked to the Club for Growth and has more pro-immigration views. Many populists are unhappy that Trump’s selection for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is a billionaire hedge fund manager with ties to Soros, including helping Soros break the British Pound.

Some of Trump’s more controversial selections may not get through Senate confirmation. For instance, Trump’s first and very controversial choice for Attorney General, Matt Gaetz, is a populist on issues like anti-trust and more of a civil libertarian. In contrast, the current nominee, Pam Bondi is a conventional pro-business, law and order Republican. While I have some major criticisms of Trump’s cabinet selections, they are an improvement over his first term.

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Kash Patel, who Trump selected to run the FBI, strikes me as a sycophant rather than the most qualified person to reform the FBI, which is a huge problem with many of Trump’s selections. However, just Patel being outspoken against the Deep State and FBI is radically disruptive. What Patel is saying about shutting down the FBI headquarters and dispersing agents across the country, might separate the FBI somewhat from the DC political bubble. However, it is a far cry from the political purge that MAGA was hoping for. At the very least, Trump can make sure the Justice Department and FBI stop targeting his base.

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Trump’s trial seemed more like political theater, as now he is not even going to be sentenced and perhaps the Deep State has made some peace with him. While Trump’s talk of retribution during the campaign could very well be empty rhetoric, Trump has proven that he can be very vindictive against his adversaries. I am just skeptical that Trump has what it takes to take on America’s most powerful institutions. During Trump’s last term, he just pardoned GOP affiliated white collar criminals and some scuzzy Black rappers. However, Trump will probably pardon the Jan 6th prisoners, except perhaps those who assaulted police officers.

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Elon Musk’s DOGE program has the potential to cut back government waste and bureaucracy, but I have my skepticism of the concept that it is as simple as running the government like a corporation. While bureaucracy should be greatly scaled back and many bureaucrats need to be laid off, this issue can also be cynically exploited to better suit corporations and oligarchs, which was the case with Reagan. Most of the Federal Budget is a combination of military spending and entitlements, like Medicare and Social Security. I doubt Trump will cut back the military budget, and if he touches entitlements, voters will retaliate against Republicans in the Midterms. Not to mention that Trump dramatically increased federal spending during his first term.

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Trump selected Tom Homan as Border Czar which signals a tough stance on illegal immigration, in line with his campaign message. However, Trump might just deport criminal illegal aliens or deport Biden’s migrants while allowing earlier waves to stay. I expect there to be a conflict between the Stephen Miller wing of the Trump administration and the rightwing of Silicon Valley, who want more h1b visas from India. Even Trump has made some recent statements in support of expanding legal immigration. Trump also has a unique opportunity to brain drain White countries like Canada, the UK, and the EU, due to how bad of shape their economies are compared to the US.

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While Joe Biden avoided a technical recession, there is a general sense of unhappiness with the economy which contributed to Kamala Harris’s loss. There was a perception that Trump is better on the economy than Harris, and Trump’s tax cuts might stimulate the economy enough to delay an economic crisis for a few more years. However, I am skeptical of the narrative that Trump will usher in this great era of prosperity. Trump’s tax cuts plus tariffs are inflationary, and if you add on proposals for austerity for the poor, Trump’s economic policies could greatly exacerbate income inequality.

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I used to be a hardcore protectionist when it was a fairly fringe position, but the issue requires a lot more nuance. Tariffs serve as a tool to negotiate better trade deals but are inflationary and regressive to use as a source of tax revenue. Tariffs don’t work so much when you don’t have an existing domestic industry, which explains why Trump’s tariffs benefited Southeast Asia and India much more than American industry. You can criticize Biden’s manufacturing plan as having a lot of corrupt corporate subsidies but overall I think it was a smarter strategy to work on rebuilding manufacturing than to just assume that tariffs will make America’s manufacturing base magically reappear. Trump’s tariffs could also be a way to redistribute wealth to Red States from coastal Blue States like California that benefit the most from globalization, with Silicon Valley and the ports in the Bay Area and LA.

While bringing back manufacturing jobs may require a weaker dollar, the irony is that Trump’s tariffs will likely strengthen the Dollar. This will cause the collapse of other nations’ economies that have massive amounts of dollar denominated debt. There is a scenario in which a trade war plus a dollar surge will get the rest of the World to seriously consider de-dollarization. While Biden wanted to appease allies like Canada, Britain, and the EU, Trump would have less qualms with totally fucking them over, which also includes defunding NATO. China and other nations could also retaliate by dumping US treasury bonds. I also suspect that Trump is trying to spook markets with tariff proposals so that he can blame a stock market crash on Biden.

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Trump is a wildcard and I envision three potential scenarios, Trump accomplishing great things, a return to late 2010s stagnation, with the stock market booming and normie conservatives doing ok and deradicalizing, but nothing really that exciting happening. Say Trump manages to pull off a soft landing in the economy with more conventionally pro-business conservative policies. However, there are good reasons to believe that Trump’s 2nd term will be a lot more chaotic because Trump has fewer guardrails and the shape that America and the World are in now.

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I believe that Trump’s re-election was a net positive for America, but I also have more of a wait and see mentality. Trump’s business strategy is to create uncertainty, so I don’t put much stake in anything he promises. Trump and his allies need to get serious about enacting good policy and MAGA needs to stop just complaining about the Left and engaging in kooky conspiracy theories.