Speculating Immigration Trends depending on whether Trump or Harris is Elected

source: wikipedia (note: these stats don’t include the recent migrant crisis.)

Latin America

If Kamala Harris is elected, expect a continuation of the mass migrant crisis from Latin America, and the reinstatement of the migrant parole program that Biden temporarily suspended. While Donald Trump may come short at enacting mass deportations, Trump would greatly reduce new migration from Latin America, as well as from Haiti.

Trump might be friendlier to immigration from Brazil, as there are a lot of Bolsonaro supporters under the heel of a leftist regime. Trump might also maintain favoritism toward Cubans while scrapping the migrant parole programs for Haiti, Venezuela, and Nicaragua. Regardless of who wins, legal immigration from Latin America will continue shifting away from Mexico and toward South America. This trend already started in the 2010s, before Biden’s migrant crisis.

source: @adam_wola on X

Asia

Chinese immigration peaked under Obama and declined under Trump, due to a new Cold War with China. Also, China’s economy was doing relatively well in the late 2010s, but now China’s economy is crashing with lots of Chinese people looking to emigrate. While legal immigration from China peaked under Obama and has since declined, there is an increase in illegal immigration from China.

While the new Cold War with China has continued under Biden, Kamala Harris is more likely to try to brain-drain China. MAGA is more xenophobic toward the Chinese and paranoid about letting in potential Chinese spies and saboteurs. However, there is a faction of the Republican Party that also supports brain draining China.

source: @cremieuxrecueil on X

Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are relatively friendly toward Indian immigration, with Kamala much more so. Kamala is of an Indian background and while in the Senate, sponsored a bill to end per-country caps for Indian immigrants. Trump has close ties with India’s pm Modi and rightwing pro-Modi Hindus in the US, and J.D. Vance’s wife is Indian. Also, much of Silicon Valley has warmed up to Trump, as they are unhappy with the Biden admin’s anti-trust policies on tech. For this reason, Trump might be friendlier to Indian h1b immigration than during his first term, when he enacted some reforms to h1b visas. Trump stated that he would stamp a green card on the diploma of any foreign student, which got him a lot of heat from immigration hardliners.

source: @mualphaxi on X

As with China, there is an increase in illegal immigration from India. However, Indian migrants tend to be poorer and more North Indian, in contrast with H1bs who are largely South Indian. Also, expect non-Indian South Asian immigration (eg. Pakistan and Nepal) to rapidly grow in the future, especially if Harris wins. While Indian immigration will likely peak this decade, if it hasn’t already, non-Indian South Asian immigration will become especially pronounced by the 2030s.

Canada & Western Europe

source: @bronzeagemantis on X

Trump might try to brain drain First World nations, including the UK, the European Union, and Canada, and perhaps East Asian nations like Japan and Taiwan. This is because Trump has hinted that he wants more European immigrants rather than immigrants from “shithole countries.” Trump is quasi-racist but in a boomer way, rather than in an Alt-Right kind of way.

America’s high interest rates are fucking over the rest of the developed world’s economies, and this is a once in a lifetime opportunity to brain drain the First World. Not to mention that Trump might try to defund NATO which would further fuck over Europe’s economy. Kamala Harris would not try to brain drain Europe, the UK, and Canada, due to her staunch alliance with those countries’ governments, and that Democrats generally disfavor White immigrants. Though Ukraine is somewhat of an exception, and European high skilled immigrants tend to vote Democrat.

source: @ChrisWillx on X

source: @surveilz on X

Former Soviet Union

Trump granted favoritism to Ukrainian refugees over non-White refugees as president, before the war started. Trump might continue to welcome Ukrainian refugees because he sees them as more compatible than non-White refugees. However, supporting Ukraine has become Democrat coded, and a lot of MAGA Republicans have complained about Ukrainian refugees taking resources from Americans. Kamala Harris will push further escalation between Ukraine and Russia while Trump could either negotiate a fair peace treaty or totally throw Ukraine under the bus. There will likely be another major exodus out of Ukraine at the end of the war.

Despite Trump being accused of being pro-Putin, Trump is much more likely than Harris to try to brain drain Russia. There has also been some increase in immigration from Georgia and Armenia.

Israel

Since October 7th, 2023, there has been a 258% spike in Israelis leaving the Country. Both Trump and Harris are friendly toward Israelis, so regardless of who wins, a lot of Israelis will emigrate to the US and settle in Florida and California. I don’t think the outcome of the Mideast war varies that much as to whether Trump or Harris is elected. Both are relatively pro-Israel, but one case is that Israel is escalating with Iran because they perceived the Biden admin as weak versus the argument that Trump will support Israel unconditionally, which will give Israel carte blanche to attack Iran.

The rest of the Middle East

One of Trump’s signature accomplishments on immigration was the so called Muslim ban. Trump will make it harder for immigrants and refugees from the Middle East and Afghanistan. If Harris is elected, the US will probably take in a lot of Palestinian and Lebanese refugees. However, Trump might welcome Lebanese Christians as refugees while excluding Muslims.

Africa

While the focus is on Asian and Latino immigration, the huge issue in the future will be whether African immigrants get a foothold and expand via chain migration. Obama expanded immigration from Africa and the Muslim world, and African immigration is much more likely to increase under Harris than Trump. Africa could end up being America’s main source of immigration by the middle of the Century.

While Kamala Harris will continue Biden' migrant crisis, some of the overt chaos at the border has been avoided by using executive action to expand legal pathways. While Biden opened the border to Latin America, he didn’t aggressively push for more high skilled immigration, and the high skilled immigrant lobby is disappointed with Biden. Harris is much more likely to push for more high skilled Asian and Indian immigrants, on top of migrants from Latin America.

source: @MarioNawfal on X

While Kamala is Harris is fairly predictable on immigration, Trump is a wildcard. There are multiple scenarios under Trump, including dramatically reducing immigration, relying on high skilled Indian immigration, or trying to brain drain the First World. During Trump’s first term, he modestly reduced immigration, both legal and illegal, but he did not change the composition of immigration that dramatically While Trump will at least deport criminal aliens, I expect him to be more moderate on immigration than his hardline supporters hope for.