Reagan vs. Nixon 24’: Contrasting Trump, DeSantis, and other Republicans on ideology and political coalitions

One could describe Trumpism as a hybrid between the old Nixon/Rockefeller wing of the GOP, fused with rightwing populism, ranging from George Wallace to Pat Buchanan, a point that Keith Preston of Attack the System has made. For instance, Trump recently praised Pat Buchanan and Mike Pence denounced Trump’s populism as at odds with conservativism. This is despite that many of Trump’s policies were conventionally conservative, such as tax cuts for the wealthy and corporate deregulation, while increasing the military budget.

A good analogy is that hardcore MAGA types like JD Vance, Margorie Taylor Green, Matt Gaetz, and Paul Gosar, are the modern day Wallaceites while more moderate Trump allies, like Elise Stefanik, are modern day Rockefeller Republicans. In contrast, the coalition behind Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, as well as Mike Pence, are more representative of the Reaganites and Bush era neocons. However, DeSantis seems to be a sort of compromise between MAGA and the GOP establishment, in the way that Elizabeth Warren was between Bernie Sanders and the Democratic establishment. There are also apt comparisons between DeSantis’s and Ted Cruz’s 2016 campaign.

Conservatism Inc generally loves DeSantis, with conservative ideologues like Ben Shapiro and Mark Levin endorsing DeSantis. DeSantis has appeal to the conservative coalition, made up of foreign policy hawks, pro-business conservatives, and the Religious Right. DeSantis also has support from intellectual dark web types like Dave Rubin and Chris Ruffo. Despite major flaws, a positive aspect of Trump was that he undermined that Reaganite GOP coalition.

Trump brought in a new demographic of working class Whites, who were former Democrats or independents, and who were motivated by populism rather than economic or social conservatism. Though Trump lost a good chunk of this demographic in 2020, and expect a lot of them to back RFK jr. over Trump. Regardless, a lot of the Romney to Clinton voters hate Trump but could support DeSantis, while DeSantis would do much worse than Trump amongst Obama to Trump voters. The Sunbelt conservatism vs. Rustbelt populism distinction is significant, with DeSantis epitomizing Sunbelt conservativism which is linked to the military industrial complex and energy industry. Since a lot of Sunbelt states are trending purple/blue, Reagan conservativism is no longer viable, with the future of the GOP having to tilt towards the Rustbelt. DeSantis is trying to pull off a Reaganite econ and social con alliance, which the GOP wants but has increasingly less appeal to voters.

DeSantis supporters are on average older, higher income, and more likely to have college degrees than Trump supporters. The first poll after DeSantis’s launch found that his strongest backing was amongst self-described conservatives (25%), suburbanites (25%), voters over the age of 65 (26%) and college-educated Whites (29%). In contrast, Trump had much broader appeal, including to all ages, non-college, moderates, and across racial lines. Besides the populist Obama to Trump Rustbelt voters, Trump won over more moderate northeastern suburbanites, such as those who are pro-choice but tough on crime. Obviously Nikki Haley has the most appeal to the country club Republican set, and Vivek Ramaswamy seems to appeal to younger, secular, well-educated voters, think libertarian tech bros.

DeSantis has split the never Trumper Neocons, with Rick Wilson, Liz Cheney, and Jennifer Rubin opposing him, while anti-Trump National Review editor, Rich Lowry, endorsed him and neocons, John Bolton, and former Bush strategist, Karl Rove, praised him while being very critical of Trump. Meghan McCain initially expressed support for DeSantis, though ended up endorsing Nikki Haley. Mitt Romney said that he would support Biden if the GOP nominee is either Trump or Vivek, implying that he’s open to DeSantis in a general election. Jeb Bush has expressed support for DeSantis, most likely as revenge for Trump humiliating him. Mark Simone, on Fox Business, alleged that the Bushes are running DeSantis’s campaign and that Karl Rove is advising his campaign. Earlier on in the election, it seemed that Fox News were going to throw Trump under the bus for DeSantis, though Fox pivoted back to Trump once it became clear that he was the frontrunner.

Source: TheMagaHulk Twitter

The split amongst Never Trumpers over DeSantis is because some like his more conventional conservative stances, while others view him as autocratic and a watered down version of MAGA. The neocons can be split into two camps, the first are ardent Zionists who tend to like DeSantis and made some peace with Trump. For instance neocon, Norman Podhoretz, supported Trump, due to his strong pro-Israel stance. The 2^nd group of neocons are committed to a broader liberal internationalist project that is concerned about preserving the sanctity of the “rules based international order” and “democratic institutions.” These types vehemently oppose Trump and are not crazy about DeSantis either.

It seems that the right leaning faction of elites viewed DeSantis as a vehicle back to power. For instance, Christina Pushaw, DeSantis’s rapid response director, told a group of donors that DeSantis will say the right things to win the primary, then move to the center after the primary. While Trump has much more grassroots support, DeSantis started out with a campaign war chest twice that of Trump’s. DeSantis was initially favored by GOP mega donors, though Haley is now the clear favorite of oligarchs. Most disturbing is DeSantis’s ties to Paul Singer, the notorious vulture capitalist who was initially behind Twitter censorship, who now backs Haley. DeSantis also had strong ties to the late casino mogul and neocon mega donor, Sheldon Adelson, as did Trump.

Source: VivaLaAmes11 Twitter

Among mega donors, Citadel CEO, Ken Griffin initially backed DeSantis but recently weighed backing Haley, and Home Depot founder, Bernie Marcus, donated to DeSantis, Haley, and Trump. Rupert Murdoch, who is cold on Trump flirted with DeSantis, though now seems to favor Haley. Billionaire investor, Stanley Druckenmiller, Thomas Peterffy, the founder of stock brokerage firm Interactive Broker, and the Koch Network, are backing Haley, while JP Morgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, and Blackrock’s Larry Fink met with Haley.

DeSantis has a mixed record on foreign policy, taking both more hawkish and non-interventionist stances, including flip flopping on Ukraine. For instance, in an interview with Tucker Carlson, he called Ukraine’s conflict with Russia "a territorial dispute" that the United States should avoid "becoming further entangled in,” after previously supporting arming Ukraine against Russia. In DeSantis’s first book, published in 2011, he condemned Obama for "currying favor" with Putin, and criticized Obama for "reneging on commitments brokered during the Bush administration," to deploy a new missile system in Eastern Europe aimed directly at Russia. Trump described  DeSantis’ rhetoric, calling Russia “an authoritarian gas station,” as neocon and like John McCain.

Source: GovRonDeSantis Twitter

As far as Mideast affairs, in 2013 while in congress, DeSantis expressed opposition to intervening in Syria. However, in last month’s debate DeSantis agreed with Haley that the US should respond militarily against Iran to any attacks on US military bases by Iranian proxies, and has generally taken a more hawkish position towards Iran. Arch neocon, John Bolton, praised DeSantis’s previous hawkish stances but called him out for caving to isolationist sentiment. DeSantis’s flipflopping has turned off both the war hawks, who now prefer Haley, and non-interventionists, who prefer Trump or Vivek.

While DeSantis is more hawkish than Trump, perhaps neocon-lite, Trump is more in line with foreign policy realism (détente/containment), with some more isolationist rhetoric. Trump was the most non-interventionist president, since perhaps Jimmy Carter, did not start any new wars, and was critical of the war in Iraq. However, he showed poor judgement in bringing on neocons like Bolton and Pompeo. Not to mention that Trump struck Syria and his assassination of general Soleimani risked escalation for war with Iran. While Trump is more isolationist on Russia, like with DeSantis, there is a chance that he could go to war with Iran on behalf of Israel. However, Trump seems to resent Netanyahu for throwing him under the bus after the 2020 election, and has made “both sides” comments about the conflict. Overall Trump is a wildcard on foreign policy.  

Source: StephenM Twitter

On fiscal issues, DeSantis slammed the debt ceiling deal as too fiscally liberal while Trump’s  message to the GOP was don’t touch Medicare or Social Security in the debt ceiling fight. Trump also railed against DeSantis for proposing cuts to social security and Medicare. This leaves some opening for Trump to pivot to the center on economics in the general, with both DeSantis and Haley being significantly to the right of Trump on economics. Not to mention that DeSantis spoke out against tariffs in 2018, which was Trump’s signature issue. Regardless, Trump was both a big spender and cut taxes, which contributed to the deficit and inflation.

Contrasting Trump and DeSantis on covid, DeSantis has appeal to the anti-lockdown and anti-vax types, while Trump has been accused of flipflopping on his handling of the pandemic. For instance, he waited too long at the beginning of the pandemic to take action, but then supported the lockdowns. Then Operation Warp Speed became one of his main legislative accomplishments. Trump distinguished himself from anti-vaxxers while DeSantis pandered to them, with DeSantis supporters attacking Trump for defending the vaccine.

Source: DeSantisWarRoom Twitter

A case for DeSantis is that he was proactive against private corporations, like Disney. This shows a major paradigm shift and breaks with “muh free markets,” Reaganite orthodoxy, to the chagrin of corporate conservatives, including Nikki Haley. Despite Trump getting called an autocrat and threat to democracy, his main weakness was his lack of action on institutional power, as he still operated under the old order. Trump just tweeted that he was “monitoring the situation” or “law and order.” Regardless, Trump is more anti-Establishment in general, and that also applies to the GOP establishment, while DeSantis is more anti-Democratic Party institutions yet friendly to the GOP establishment. Trump is more satisfying if you also hate the GOP, whereas DeSantis is more appealing if your ire is targeted more at the DNC, to “own the libs.”

As president, Trump refused to talk about anti-White discrimination and I remember in an interview on Fox News, right after he declared, he continued to emphasize that his presidency had the record lowest unemployment for African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, and women, basically every group except White men, which he still has on his platform. However, early this year, Trump gave a speech where he said that he would end all anti-White, anti-Asian, and Critical Race theory in all American public schools. Trump also proposes eliminating an Obama-era rule that requires cities to address “residential segregation” in order to receive federal housing grants.

While DeSantis has made opposing wokeness/CRT a signature campaign issue, his approach has cheapened anti-wokeness into just another GOP culture war, wedge issue, reminding me more of the social conservative moral panics from the Reagan and Bush eras. Trump failed to aggressively fight deplatforming and then he was deplatformed. As for DeSantis, his hate crime legislation, in regards to antisemitism, is a direct violation of the First Amendment.

The immigration reductionist organization, Numbers USA, gave DeSantis a grade B on immigration while he was in congress. While DeSantis’s overall record on immigration was fairly conservative, the reason he did not get an A was due to his votes for the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, which included some provisions on immigration. He also voted to increase tech worker visas, which reflects his ties to the business wing of the GOP. Not to mention that Christina Pushaw, DeSantis’s rapid response director, expressed more liberal views on illegal immigration. However, Trump is actually not that different from DeSantis on immigration, though DeSantis might be slightly more liberal on legal immigration. Overall, Vivek is more pro-immigration than either Trump or DeSantis, with Haley obviously being the most pro-immigration Republican running.

Source: alexbruesewitz Twitter

On criminal justice, DeSantis came out for repealing Trump’s First Step Act, which reformed federal sentencing. While Trump’s criminal justice reform is one issue where he was more libertarian, his recent proposals sound very draconian on criminal justice issues. Trump is probably somewhat better on civil liberties than DeSantis, though neither have come out against either the Patriot Act or proposed Restrict Act. DeSantis was accused of abusing detainees while working as a guard at Guantanamo Bay, and just being associated with Bush’s war on terror is bad, as it was the foundation for Biden’s ongoing war on domestic terrorism. Overall, Vivek is probably the strongest on civil liberties and Haley obviously the worst.

DeSantis does part ways with conservative orthodoxy somewhat on the environment, which is one of his redeeming qualities. DeSantis has styled himself as a "Teddy Roosevelt conservationist," and is probably more pro-environment than the GOP norm, which is a low bar. For instance, Haley called out DeSantis as a liberal on environmental issues, and accused him of banning fracking in Florida. Not to mention that Trump was lousy on environmental issues. DeSantis’s main environmental cause is protecting the Everglades and conservation in general, though liberal environmentalists have called him out for not caring about climate change.

Source: loganclarkhall Twitter

Trump’s 2024 campaign platform and rhetoric sounds fairly populist compared to his 2020 campaign, in which he sounded more like a conventional Republican. Trump’s current election proposals sound much more grandiose, such as baby bonuses to create a new baby boom, flying cars, beautifying cities, and planning 10 new futuristic “Freedom Cities.” Whether these proposals are realistic or not, this new agenda sounds much more promethean than just talking about tax cuts and deregulation.

DeSantis’s strategy is to portray Trump as a Rhino, and not a conservative. For instance, Christina Pushaw, DeSantis’s rapid response director, smeared Trump supporters as former democrats, which is a great way to build a coalition. In turn, Trump’s has tried to associate DeSantis with the pre-Trump Republican Party. For instance, Trump posted a video on Truth Social of DeSantis admitting that he wanted to be like Paul Ryan. Trump said that  DeSantis is “a disciple of Paul Ryan and that means, that's a bad person, that's a bad person to be a disciple of."

Axios quoted a “Trump confidant,” stating about DeSantis that, “There’s a pre-Trump Ron and there’s a post-Trump Ron. He used to be a Reagan Republican. That’s where he comes from. He's now awkwardly trying to square his views up with the populist nationalist feeling of that party." Since Reagan has been basically a deity within the GOP, it is groundbreaking for Trump’s campaign to use being like Reagan as a smear. Trump also called DeSantis’s abortion ban a terrible mistake, and said that abortion was responsible for the GOP underperforming in midterms.

Source: RichardBSpencer Twitter

Trump is ideologically much less conservative than DeSantis. Yes, Trump was the Rhino, which is actually a good thing as most Republicans suck. Prior to running for president as a Republican, Trump had a reputation for being a Centrist. When Trump ran for president with the Reform Party in 2000, he wrote a public policy book, The America We Deserve. In this book, Trump called for a strong military and for cracking down on crime and illegal immigration. However, he also called for a tax increase on the ultra-wealthy to pay off the national debt and for universal healthcare, as well as espousing more liberal views on race and gay rights. Trump is going to get the GOP nomination unless legal issues stand in the way. While I support RFK JR. over Trump, the question is whether Trump can successfully emphasize the anti-establishment angle while also pivoting to the Center.

Source: NoahCRothman Twitter