Hypothetical Political Realignments under Calexit
It is clear that America is in decline and is the most polarized it has been since the Civil War, with a greater sense abounding that the nation exists only as an economic and political zone, managed by an out-of-touch political establishment and oligarchy with little concern for the citizens. Beyond polarization and corruption there is no longer any sense of shared values that unite the nation and define what it means to be an American.
Under a centralization of power and winner take all mass democracy, political compromise just means that neither the left or right are able to achieve their goals and get anything out of the system. This arrangement only benefits those in power, creating a fusion of the worst of both the left and right under a centralized state and managerial corporate economic structure with no major political party or movement offering a viable alternative that could restore the nation as one cohesive unit.
Smaller geo-political units, however, could provide an alternative that better serve their citizen’s needs and desires. Polls show an increased support for secession: “with the South and West at 33% overall and the Northeast just behind at 32%. The landlocked Heartland and Mountain regions come in at 24% and 28%, respectively.” Independence movements include Calexit in California and other movements such as the Texas and Alaska Independence movements gaining in traction. California is the nation’s most populous state with the highest GDP, and if it were to secede it would have a cataclysmic impact on national and global geo-politics, creating new political realignments and paradigms across the nation, and sparking a greater trend for more autonomy from out of touch centralized institutions.
The Democratic establishment is dead set against Calexit due to fears of losing California’s electoral college votes. Just imagine a post-Calexit scenario where California elects a socialist and America elects Tucker Carlson. However the fear about America shifting red ignores the other independence movements in Red States. Not to mention the push for Washington D.C. and Puerto Rican statehood which the right views as Democratic power grabs and would likely exacerbate support for independence movements from the right. Regardless of the power balance of the United States, independence movements would lessen the power of the neoliberal establishment and American Empire.
As for California politics, the state has been a global trendsetter, for better or worse, but has many internal problems with an out of touch political leadership caught up in America's blue vs. red tribe national politics. The State’s Democratic Party primarily serves as a donor base for the national DNC while neglecting the needs of Californians, failing to invest in housing and infrastructure. Currently there are no viable alternatives to one-party rule in California but the cause of independence could shake things up as breaking up the one party political system is the strongest case for independence.
There are many different political scenarios in regards to California politics in a hypothetical new nation. The Democratic establishment is deadest against Calexit but if a hypothetical independence referendum were to pass immediately the political makeup of the new nation could very well be the liberalism of the Democratic party. Say two new parties made up of the California Democratic Party: one neoliberal party and one progressive party.
While that scenario is not ideal it is absolutely necessary for Calexit to have a Parliamentary System rather than winner take all. Likely under a Calexit scenario, new political parties and paradigms will emerge as the existing Democratic party is within the framework of Americanism. I put forth a unity vision for a New California Nationalist ideology that is focused specifically on California based issues as there needs to be an alternative political framework for California, with or without Calexit to influence any viable opposition party.
As race relations go, despite the woke reputation, the state is free from much of the baggage of America’s Black vs. White narrative on race as the state is much more diverse and has been a place to start over from scratch. Even during last year’s racial justice protests there was much less civil unrest compared to other urban areas. California citizens are more moderate than assumed with affirmative action being rejected by the majority of voters including about half of people of color. Race relations among ordinary citizens are generally affable, even if California’s institutions, from academia to big tech, are very woke.
It is hard to predict whether these culture wars would remain relevant post Calexit taking into account it is the polarization of America that fuels cancel culture and civil unrest. A lot depends upon demographic patterns as outmigration serves as a safety valve for those who are dissatisfied. It is hard to say whether Calexit would encourage an exodus of the remaining Republicans in California or minimize the transient nature of migration patterns that fuel the red vs. blue polarization.
The California of the future will probably be less White, with or without Calexit, but narratives about race relations will change in a Post American order. For instance White Californians will be one of several legitimate minorities under a pluralist order in contrast to the American narrative of diversity vs. White supremacy. My vision for California Nationalism offers a pluralist and local based solutions to resolve these concerns of racial and political polarization that are needed for a society that values true diversity and inclusion.
As for institutional power in California, big tech is closely linked to the deep state, wall street, and the Northeastern Establishment. If Calexit were to succeed, expect a more decentralized political and economic structure with new institutions that are less linked to the American establishment. The Calexit movement is ideologically diverse: generally left leaning but also more decentralist.
Regardless if Calexit happens or not expect to see greater bifurcation between red and blue states with a breakdown in corporate and state institutions such as what is happening in Florida with legislation against Big Tech and an alternative handling of the pandemic. New political paradigms will continue to form on a regional basis regardless of if America remains one political unit, and as things stand polarization will likely continue to get much worse.