Trump's Escalation Trap With Iran & The End Of Pax Americana
How the Iran War backfired in creating an Iran (David) vs America/Israel (Goliath) Narrative
Disclaimer: I do not endorse the Iranian regime or their theocracy but this is really beautiful
Trump was hinting a lot about backing down from the Iran war to calm the markets, which is basically market manipulation. That initially worked for keeping stocks up and oil prices down but when that stopped working, Trump gave that speech regurgitating his Truth Social posts, which backfired, causing oil prices to soar again. Then out of frustration, Trump totally lost it and started making those genocidal threats about bombing Iran’s power plants and infrastructure, and returning them to the stone ages.
Because Iran responded by agreeing to a temporary ceasefire, Trump’s supporters acted like it was his brilliant art of the deal, but neither side really desired a full blown escalation. While Iran feared being destroyed by the US, Iran retaliating against the Gulf oil infrastructure would cause a global depression. Regardless, the ceasefire was somewhat of a capitulation to Iran in that it agreed to a lot of Iran’s demands, such as Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz and charging fees, and the US removing military bases from the Gulf. Initially, America asked for a 48 hour ceasefire and Iran said No. However, the US is obviously not going to agree to Iran’s full demands.
The ceasefire initially worked in calming the markets and oil prices, but only a very limited number of ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, Trump gave up on the very short ceasefire and is now using the navy to block the Strait. So, basically blockading Iran’s blockade, which doesn’t do much to open the Strait other than harming Iran economically and potentially provoking further escalation. This action just shows extreme desperation, and if the blockade is continued, it will tank the global economy, which is Iran’s objective. On top of that, China’s navy is getting involved to protect their supply of Iranian oil and test the US.
The best case scenario, which actually looks more likely than full blown escalation, is the US just leaves and Iran controls the Strait indefinitely. Trump doesn’t want a prolonged war so he may back out and just leave the Israelis and Saudis/Emiratis to fight against Iran on their own. Israel is already trying to sabotage the very fragile ceasefire. However, Iran also has an incentive to make sure there will be major costs to this war, since’s Israel military strategy is to “mow the lawn.” Basically, go in to weaken their adversary and come back in latter. Thus, Iran doesn’t want to lose their escalation dominance that they achieved by scaring the US into agreeing to a ceasefire. The main danger is if the US leaves then Israel might use a nuke on Iran.
The US’s main military object now is to open the Strait, so basically just returning to the pre-war status quo, thus nothing is gained. In contrast, Iran by controlling the Strait is potentially becoming more wealthy and powerful. Much of America’s global power and justification for its world reserve currency status is because of its navy maintaining safe waterway passage for global commerce. The closure of the Strait is the end of that arrangement, as various nations, including US allies, are looking for alternatives for secure transit, including making deals with Iran.
Because of Trump screwing over Europe on oil, Europeans are likely to become closer to China. Also, Trump is talking about pulling out of NATO. Due to relocating military defense resources away from Asia to the Middle East and the economic harm to Asian allies, this war also totally contradicts US strategy of countering China. For instance, South Korea may end up removing sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran letting South Korea to receive oil and gas shipments while paying a fee for using the Strait. Also, Taiwan’s opposition leader is now pledging reconciliation with China. Not to mention that Iran accepted the ceasefire reportedly due to a “last-minute intervention by China, thus Trump also capitulated to China. Even if the war de-escalates, the war’s geopolitical harm will be vastly greater than past wars, including Vietnam. For instance, the end of the petrodollar, and foreign nations dumping US treasury bonds. One thing the paleocon isolationists get wrong is that the empire improvishes us for the benefit of the World. The petrodollar and reserve currency have made us rich, though the benefits disproportionately go to the top.
Ironically, past establishment presidents, including George Bush, would not have been as reckless as to get us into this war. It is Trump’s unhinged personality that likely caused him to disregard warnings from intelligence about dangers of the war. Netanyahu probably lied or gave bad intelligence to Trump that Iran would be easy to defeat. Regardless, Iran has proven to be stronger and more resilient than anticipated. Iran is on the cutting edge at drone technology and asymmetrical warfare while America is fighting the war like the 20th century, despite a vastly larger military budget. Basically, Iran has been preparing for this invasion for decades while to Trump it was simply an “excursion.”
This is the first time in a long time, perhaps since the Korean War, that the US is fighting a real nation rather than some insurgents or a weak regime like Iraq. While initially it seemed that Iran could become a failed state, Iran could potentially become a regional power and perhaps the World’s fourth power, after the US, China, and Russia, due to controlling the Strait. Iran has escalation dominance because either the US does a ground invasion, with thousands of military casualties, or the US nukes Iran and becomes a global pariah. In contrast, Iran can just retaliate against the Gulf and crush the US economically. Trump by capitulating has eliminated the potency of US military threats in US-Iran diplomacy. Not to mention that the war only makes Iran more radical, so we will be stuck with both a more powerful and radical Iran for decades. Late stage empires often overstretch like this because they are acting as if they are still at their peak, and then face a rude awakening.
I don’t want to whitewash the atrocities of Iran’s regime, which has been very oppressive to their people. However, because of Trump’s super villainesque genocidal rhetoric, threatening war crimes, Iran went from being viewed as a villain or backwards nation to an underdog standing up to American hubris and Israeli aggression. Basically, this war grants Iran moral leverage, which they didn’t have before. There is this rally around the flag effect, in which Iranians who were very anti-regime, now view America and Israel as their main adversaries and desperately seek out the regime’s protection.
While my assessment is that the US bombing of the girls’ school in Iran was an accident, initially denying it and then Trump lying about Iran using a US tomahawk missile against their own school was so tackless that it lends credence to the more conspiratorial view that America is intentionally targeting schools. Not to mention the military reliance upon AI for targets with a lack of human oversight. Trump also casually, accidentally admitted to arming protesters, which was not to overthrow the regime but rather to get the protesters killed to create justification for the invasion. Even George Bush was actually fairly careful not to kill civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan because as disastrous as those wars were, he valued America’s soft power image that America is morally good. The US regime has lost most of its soft power and Trump is unique in not caring about soft power.
Iran has become an avatar for global discontent from third world resistance to American imperialism to non-Whites who view America as a White supremacist nation but also ironically young alienated White men who feel that America’s elites and institutions fucked them over and that their savior Trump betrayed them for “Jewish interests.” Basically, Iran is humiliating America’s parasitic elites who treat the American people as subjects rather than citizens. Iran views this as a spiritual and existential war because unlike Americans, Iranians have skin in the game. In contrast, America is primarily motived by economics, from gas prices to the vulgarity of Trump basing war decisions on the stock market, demonstrating that America worships mammon. Iranian propaganda is directly targeting America’s soft power, such as those lego themed videos with catchy tunes. The propaganda is aimed directed at the American people’s grievances against their government and elites, including about Epstein, albeit also with leftwing rhetoric about George Floyd. I’ve noticed all these zoomer men who supported Trump now view him as an uncool old man and view Iran as cool and badass and transgressive to root for.
